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According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on April 23, there has been an increase in the depreciation of currencies of emerging market countries relative to the dollar. Currency depreciation is likely to lead to inflation and the burden of repayment of dollar-denominated debt increases, so there are countries have begun to take measures to defend the local currency.

  On the 17th, Indonesia's currency, the rupiah, fell to 16,300 rupiah per dollar, touching its lowest level since April 2020 after four years. The Philippine peso and South Korean won also remained at their lowest levels against the U.S. dollar in one year and five months.

  The Brazilian real also fell significantly against the dollar, falling to its lowest level in 13 months on the 16th. The Indian rupee is also currently down to about 83 rupees to the dollar, a record low. In contrast, compared with the exchange rate against the dollar at the end of 2022, the Brazilian real has risen slightly by 1.6%, the Indonesian rupiah has fallen by 4%, the South Korean won has fallen by 8.2%, and the Indian rupee has fallen by 0.8%.

  The main reason for the depreciation of these countries' currencies was the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index, which shows the strength of the dollar against many major currencies, reached its highest level since November 2023, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March was at its highest level since November. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment statistics for March were better than market expectations, leaving the impression that inflation is permanent and the labor market remains firm. There is speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold off on lowering interest rates, coupled with the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, so the dollar is being constantly bought.

  There are also countries whose central banks have decided to intervene in the exchange rate. The governor of Indonesia's central bank, Perry Wajiyo, who has implemented exchange rate intervention, said that "in order to maintain the exchange rate, there will be continued intervention." Bloomberg reported that Vietnam's central bank has indicated that it is prepared to intervene in the exchange rate.

  At a meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers, Brazil, the rotating presidency, expressed concern about the dollar's appreciation. Japan, the U.S. and South Korea also issued a joint statement of "serious concern" about the depreciation of the yen and won before the meeting.

  Currency depreciation can lead to inflation due to higher import prices, increasing the repayment burden of emerging market countries with dollar-denominated debt. Economic deterioration may lead to currency depreciation, the formation of a vicious circle.

  Japan's Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute chief economist Toru Nishihama said: "can not yet predict the global trade bottoming out, the United States inflation is also very sticky. For emerging market countries, the grim conditions will continue."

:2024-05-02
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