As we enter the fourth quarter, the global economy is facing less growth divergence and volatility, and the growth trend is gradually stabilising. At the same time, economic downside risks remain high and multiple challenges persist, requiring proactive policy measures to provide a strong guarantee for sustained economic growth.

On 25 September, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released a new edition of its economic outlook report, which raised the world economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2 per cent from the previous 3.1 per cent, while keeping the world economic growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 3.2 per cent. The report suggests that global inflation levels continue to decline and economic growth remains somewhat resilient. Many countries in the Group of Twenty (G20) have seen relatively strong economic growth.
Since the beginning of this year, the situation of sluggish growth in the world economy has gradually improved. In the first half of the year, the manufacturing sector in different regions showed different rhythms of recovery, which had a clear impact on economic growth. Especially in the second quarter, developing economies to maintain faster growth, while the overall growth of developed economies slow, coupled with the economic environment of the countries, the pace of policy is not the same, the global economic recovery divergence was once more obvious. Into September, to the Federal Reserve interest rate cut as a sign, accompanied by monetary policy adjustments and inflationary pressures ease, the United States, Japan, Europe and other developed economies are expected to usher in a more stable growth. At the same time, with the weakening of external pressures and their own economic structure continued to adjust, the majority of emerging economies or to further release the growth potential.

Improvements in global trade and inflation have provided conditions for growth recovery. Global trade has recovered faster than expected. Inflation is gradually declining and stabilising. The OECD expects inflation in most G20 economies to return to central bank target levels by the end of 2025. Some analyses have pointed out that this trend not only helps to ease uncertainty in the global economy, but also provides governments with more room for monetary policy.
New growth momentum is gathering in the global economy. Currently, digital transformation and the development of the green economy are expected to provide new impetus to global economic growth. Digital transformation has improved production efficiency and given rise to new business models and service modes; the development of the green economy promotes sustainable development of the global economy and environmental protection, and provides broader space for future economic growth. These new growth points will help narrow the growth gap between economies and stabilise the pace of growth.
However, it is also important to see that the challenges to global economic growth posed by the slowdown in demand in the markets of Europe and the United States, the uncertain path of monetary policy in the United States and other developed economies, the continuing geopolitical tensions, and the persistence of high interest rates and high debt are not far away.
The sluggish demand in Europe, the United States and other developed economies has not improved significantly. In the continuing high interest rate environment, with the gradual depletion of the excess savings accumulated during the epidemic, the consumption of residents in developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan has continued to cool. Reduced demand in Europe and the United States will lead to a decline in exports from export-dependent countries and regions, which will in turn affect the overall performance of global trade.
High interest rates and high debt will continue. Along with the production expansion, the global supply chain recovery, the global inflation situation has improved but ‘sticky’ strong. Although major central banks in Europe and the United States have started to cut interest rates, interest rates will remain high for some time, and the global economy will remain in an environment of high financing costs in the short term. At the same time, the global public debt and corporate debt levels remain high, threatening economic growth. In addition, the Federal Reserve in grasping the pace of interest rate cuts on the issue of still need to ‘walk the tightrope’, its impact on the global economy needs to be closely watched.

It should also be noted that some people in the United States continue to escalate the strategic blockade, economic blockade and scientific and technological sanctions against other countries and regions, disrupting the stability of the global economy, which is constantly cutting the world economy and bringing about the effect of fragmentation. At the same time, geopolitical tensions continue to be prominent in disrupting the recovery.
In the fourth quarter, a series of important international meetings, including the BRICS Leaders‘ Meeting, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Informal Meeting and the G20 Leaders' Summit, will be held soon. All parties should fully grasp the opportunities and make good use of the relevant platforms to address the risks and challenges through measures such as strengthening international cooperation, advancing structural reforms, enhancing risk prevention and promoting sustainable development, so as to continue to promote the sustained and stable growth of the global economy.